H MéxicoFelipe Castro
Presentación de los libros:
Evolución y morfología de las haciendas en el partido de Zacatecas. Siglo
XIX, de Laura Gemma Flores García y Jaime Medina Martínez;
y "La casa y el territorio, estudio de caso para la aplicación del modelo de
ecomuseos en espacios hacendarios",
de Laura Gemma Flores García
Museo Zacatecano, Zacs.
Jueves 20 de junio, 17:00 hs.
Datos generales Tipo de actividad:
Presentación de libro
MUSEO ZACATECANO, ZACATECAS, ZAC.
EN EL MARCO DEL PROYECTO: DIAGNÓSTICO Y PUESTA EN VALOR DEL MODELO DE ECOMUSEOS EN ESPACIOS HACENDARIOS DE ZACATECAS, BECA SEP-CONACYT OTORGADA A LAURA GEMMA FLORES GARCÍA SE INVITA A LA:
PRESENTACIÓN DE LOS LIBROS:
Evolución y morfología de las haciendas en el partido de Zacatecas. Siglo XIX, Autores: Laura Gemma Flores García y Jaime Medina Martínez, Zacatecas, CONACYT-Texere, 2012, 278 P.
M.C. LUIS ROMÁN GUTIÉRREZ Y M.C. LIMONAR SOTO SALAZAR
La casa y el territorio, estudio de caso para la aplicación del modelo de ecomuseos en espacios hacendarios, Trancoso, Zac., Autora: Laura Gemma Flores García, Zacatecas, CONACYT-Texere, 2013, 412 P.
C.DR. MARGIL DE JESÚS CANIZALES ROMO Y DR. JUAN MANUEL LUGO BOTELLO
LUGAR: MUSEO ZACATECANO, ZACATECAS, ZAC.
FECHA: JUEVES 20 DE JUNIO 2013
HORA: 17:00 HRS
NEP: New Economics Papers
Business, Economic and Financial History
|Edited by:||Bernardo Batiz-Lazo|
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In this issue we have:
- Slavery, the British Atlantic Economy and the Industrial Revolution C Knick Harley
- Close but not a Central Bank: The New York Clearing House and issues of clearing house loan certificates Jon R Moen; Ellis W Tallman
- Kondratieff Waves in the World System Perspective Korotayev Andrey; Grinin Leonid
- Waves on Waves – Long Waves on the Seven Seas Helenius Anttiheikki
- The Expansion of the Commercial Sector and the Child Quantity-Quality Transition in a Malthusian World Ken Tabata
- CANNON WAS RIGHT BUT INCOMPLETE: FRANKEL WAS A NEGLECTED EARLY CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH THEORY Charles-Henri Dimaria
- El Estado y las estrategias nacionales de desarrollo en Brasil. Evolución y trayectorias recientes Juan Vicente Bachiller Cabria
- The emergence and the development of the federations: The Achaean federation, the United Provinces and the EU. Economou, Emmanouel/Marios/Lazaros; Kyriazis, Nicholas
- L’émergence des collectifs de conception inter-industries : le cas de la Lunar Society dans l’Angleterre du XVIIIème Marine Agogue
- A Historical Overview of Joint Stock Company Births in Greece (1830-1909): Coincidence, causality and determinants Pepelasis, Ioanna Sapfo; Emmanouilidi, Elpianna
- The Decline of the U.S. Rust Belt: A Macroeconomic Analysis Lee Ohanian; David Lagakos; Simeon Alder
- La diversidad de los capitalismos latinoamericanos : los casos de Argentina, Brasil y México. Bizberg, Ilan; Théret, Bruno
- Does Productivity Decline after Promotion? The Case of French Academia Mareva Sabatier
- Does it Matter Which Citation Tool is Used to Compare the H-Index of a Group of Highly Cited Researchers? Farhadi , Hadi; Salehi , Hadi; Md Yunus , Melor; Arezoo , Aghaei Chadegani; Farhadi , Maryam; Fooladi , Masood; Ale Ebrahim, Nader
- Social Democracy and Distributive Conflict in the UK, 1950-2010 Carlo V. Fiorio; Simon Mohun; Roberto Veneziani
- Vigencia de las Contribuciones de Milton Friedman en TeorÃa y PolÃtica Monetaria Francisco Rosende
- Growth and Demography in Turkey: Economic History vs. Pro-Natalist Rhetoric Attar, M. Aykut
- Slavery, the British Atlantic Economy and the Industrial Revolution
Date: 2013-04-01 By: C Knick Harley (University of Oxford, St Antony’s College) URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nuf:esohwp:_113&r=his Modern economic growth first emerged in Britain about the time of the Industrial Revolution, with its cotton textile factories, urban industrialization and export orientated industrialization. A period of economic growth, industrial diversification and export orientation preceded the Industrial Revolution. This export orientation revolved around an Americanization of British trade for which the slave colonies of the Caribbean were central. The Eric Williams’ explored the extent to which this export economy based on West Indian slavery contributed to the coming of the Industrial Revolution. His claim that profits from the slave trade were crucial to the Industrial Revolution has not stood up to critical evaluation. Nonetheless, modern speculations regarding endogenous growth plausibly postulate that manufacturing, urbanization, and a powerful merchant class all have a favourable impact for growth. These hypotheses need careful consideration. What set the British colonial empire aside from its rivals was not the quality of its sugar colonies but the involvement of the temperate colonies on the North American mainland. Unlike the slave colonies created to exploit staple exports, English emigrants to the northern mainland sought to establish independent settlement. These colonies lacked staple products and residents financed imports by exploited opportunities the empire provided providing for shipping and merchandising and compensating for the lack European market for the timber or temperate agricultural products by exporting to the sugar colonies which, in turn, concentrated on the export staple. The British Empire was unique and its development provided an important and growing diversified and relatively wealthy market for British manufactured goods that all other empires lacked. Although the mainland colonies financed their imports of British manufactured goods by intergrading into the slave-based British Atlantic, it seems likely that in the absence of opportunities in the slave colonies the mainland colonies would have imported similar amounts of British manufactured goods.
- Close but not a Central Bank: The New York Clearing House and issues of clearing house loan certificates
Date: 2013 By: Jon R Moen
Ellis W Tallman
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1308&r=his The paper examines the New York Clearing House (NYCH) as a lender of last resort by looking at clearing-house-loan-certificate borrowing during five banking panics of the National Banking Era (1863–1913). In that system, adequate aggregate liquidity provision was passive and dependent upon member bank borrowing. We document bank borrowing behavior using bank-level data for clearing-house loan certif cates issued to NYCH member banks. The historical record reveals that the large New York City banks behaved in ways that resembled those of a central bank in 1884 and in 1890, but less so in the more severe crises. Keywords: Financial institutions ; Clearinghouses (Banking) ; Financial markets
- Kondratieff Waves in the World System Perspective
Date: 2013-02-28 By: Korotayev Andrey
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nos:wuwpma:emanova_elena.12760-kondratieffworldsyst&r=his The analysis of long economic cycles allows us to understand long-term world-system dynamics, to develop forecasts, to explain crises of the past, as well as the current global economic crisis. The article offers an historical sketch of research on K-waves; it analyzes the nature of Kondratieff waves that are considered as a special form of cyclical dynamics that emerged in the industrial period of the World System history. It offers a historical and theoretical analysis of K-wave dynamics in the World System framework; in particular, it studies the influence of the long wave dynamics on the changes of the world GDP growth rates during the last two centuries. Special attention is paid to the interaction between Kondratieff waves and Juglar cycles. The article is based on substantial statistical data, it extensively employs quantitative analysis, contains numerous tables and diagrams. On the basis of the proposed analysis it offers some forecasts of the world economic development in the next two decades. Keywords: economic cycles, world system, Kondratieff waves, Juglar cycles JEL: B1
- Waves on Waves – Long Waves on the Seven Seas
Date: 2013-02-28 By: Helenius Anttiheikki URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nos:wuwpma:emanova_elena.12760-kwavesea&r=his Kondratieff waves are an interesting subject of study and describe present global economic developments. The Global Financial Crisis of 2009 and the present economic situation have parallels with the Great Depression of the 1930s. Twice-in-a-century events are occurring again. On the other hand, many important innovations have been introduced during the last decades. These innovations have changed people’s lives in a revolutionary manner and have contributed very positively to the global development. Study of the development of seafaring supports the claim of the existence of Kondratieff waves. Important innovations and milestones of development of seafaring coincided with the upswing phases of these waves. Moods of different eras manifest also in composition of shipping fleets and flotillas.One needs new creative approaches to solve global challenges. The study of long waves allows compelling insights and provides timeless wisdom for the study of economics. Keywords: Kondratieff wave, global economic development, Great Depression, innovations, shipping fleet, JEL: N7
- The Expansion of the Commercial Sector and the Child Quantity-Quality Transition in a Malthusian World
Date: 2013-05 By: Ken Tabata (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University) URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:105&r=his This paper constructs a simple Malthusian model to explain per capita income differences in the Malthusian era by focusing on regional variations in the expansion of the commercial sector. This paper shows that a larger productivity improvement in the skilled intensive commercial sector relative to the improvement in the unskilled intensive agricultural sector causes a higher per capita income in the Malthusian steady-state equilibrium by enhancing the child quantity-quality transition. From the late Middle Ages, Northwestern Europe (Britain and the Netherlands) was characterized by dramatic growth of both the commercial sector and urbanization, high literacy rates, and a low-pressure demographic regime, and thus, these regions developed very differently from the rest of Europe. Our results are somewhat consistent with the relevant experiences of Northwestern Europe in the preindustrial era. Keywords: Commercial Sector, Sectoral Productivity Improvement, Child Quantity-Quality Transition, Malthusian Era JEL: J10
- CANNON WAS RIGHT BUT INCOMPLETE: FRANKEL WAS A NEGLECTED EARLY CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH THEORY
Date: 2012-06-22 By: Charles-Henri Dimaria (LEO – Laboratoire d’économie d’Orleans – CNRS : UMR7322 – Université d’Orléans, STATEC – Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques – Luxembourg) URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00826519&r=his This paper reexamines an important early contribution to the growth literature highlighted in 2000 by Cannon in the American Economic Review: "The production function in allocation and growth: A synthesis" by Marvin Frankel in 1962. First this contribution provides a formal proof in the continuous time framework of trajectories that are not provided by Frankel and Cannon. Second it shows that in this framework poverty traps are possible while it was not detected by these authors. Keywords: Economic growth, Poverty traps.
- El Estado y las estrategias nacionales de desarrollo en Brasil. Evolución y trayectorias recientes
Date: 2012 By: Juan Vicente Bachiller Cabria (Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia em Políticas Públicas – Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro) URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00825678&r=his One of the most significant characteristics of capitalism in Brazil is the powerful role played by the government. Economic development has been closely linked to the creation of a series of state agencies and institutions designed to guide the process. In fact, the construction of the contemporary Brazilian state reflects the evolution of development strategies, with each new grand project, whether national industrialization or global economic integration, requiring specific institutional reforms to the entire public infrastructure. Keywords: State capacities, Development strategies, Import substitution industrialization, Liberal reforms, New develpmentalism
- The emergence and the development of the federations: The Achaean federation, the United Provinces and the EU.
Date: 2013-03-05 By: Economou, Emmanouel/Marios/Lazaros
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:47349&r=his In the present essay we analyse for the first time as far as we know the development of democracy, which emerged in Greece during the classical period, into the proto-federations of the democratic city-states. We examine their political institutions and policies, like common defense and external policy, military organization, representative federal bodies like popular assemblies, parliament, generals as military and political commanders, federal finance ministers etc., as well as their economic institutions and policies: Common currency, federal budget and federal revenues. We address in more detail as a case study the Achaean Federation. Then, we compare this particular proto-federation with the United Provinces (UP, the Dutch Republic) and show structural and organizational similarities. Lastly, we compare the Achaean federation with today’s European Union (EU) and conclude that in some respects the proto-federation was more advanced than the EU, and thus can serve as a benchmark in addressing current European issues. Keywords: Institutions, economic organization, Achaean federation, United Provinces,EU JEL: H5
- L’émergence des collectifs de conception inter-industries : le cas de la Lunar Society dans l’Angleterre du XVIIIème
Date: 2012 By: Marine Agogue (CGS – Centre de Gestion Scientifique – MINES ParisTech – École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00707361&r=his Il nous semble que nous pencher sur une forme historique de collectif de conception inter-industrie dans des contextes de forts changements sociétaux et technologiques peut nous aider à mieux comprendre la nature et les processus d’émergence des collectifs contemporains. Nous proposons alors d’examiner l’émergence d’un collectif de conception inter-industries, la Lunar Society de Birmingham au XVIIIème siècle, dont la performance est aujourd’hui indéniable tant l’héritage du travail collaboratif de ses membres a profondément modifié l’Angleterre de l’époque. Nous nous référons aux travaux des deux grands historiens de la Lunar Society, Richard Schofield (Schofield, 1957; 1963) et Jenny Uglow (Uglow, 2002). Les sources permettant d’étayer l’histoire de la Lunar Society sont en fait peu nombreuses : même si la vie de certains membres (notamment James Watt et Josiah Wedgwood) fut l’objet les historiens des sciences et des techniques se sont en fait peu penchés sur l’histoire de cette société savante anglaise, comme le soulignait par exemple un article de Science et Vie consacrée à la Lunar Society en novembre 2002. Ce manque d’études historiques peut s’expliquer par le peu d’archives sur les activités de la Lunar Society. Ainsi, les travaux de Schofield et de Uglow s’appuient sur la correspondance que s’échangèrent les membres de la Lunar Society, et ne peuvent donc rendre compte avec exhaustivité de l’ensemble des mécanismes de coopération, les rencontres physiques entre les divers protagonistes n’étant que peu relatées. Néanmoins, les perspectives historiques que nous apportent ces ouvrages nous permettent de saisir, de manière assez complète, l’essence de ce collectif.
- A Historical Overview of Joint Stock Company Births in Greece (1830-1909): Coincidence, causality and determinants
Date: 2013-05-29 By: Pepelasis, Ioanna Sapfo
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:47335&r=his Research on the history of the joint stock company has focused on advanced capitalist countries. Among the latecomer countries to be neglected is Greece. This paper is the outcome of a research project which seeks to redress this omission by constructing a historical data base from the charters of Greek Joint Stock Company (JSC) start-ups. We examine here through historical/qualitative and quantitative analysis the data for the period between 1830 and 1909. Our main findings are that: 1. The joint stock company in Greece came with nation building. Incorporation represented a small number of companies in absolute terms, but a relatively large capital commitment. It was emblematic of ‘big business units’ in what was basically a peasant economy. 2. Although the JSC was introduced from above, the legal framework for incorporation failed to evolve and adapt. Other forces in the socio-economic environment drove its evolution. Namely, the shift of JSC births from a period of incubation and ‘monoculture’ to a period (time-thread) of expanding horizons commencing circa 1870. 3. Joint stock company births came in waves. The timing of the 1870 cut-off point and of the other peaks in births coincided with exogenous so to speak shocks, among which institutional /political changes, and or geographical expansion played a primary role. These raised business expectations and hence increased the supply of surplus capital towards avant-garde activities (i.e. the nascent corporate sector). It could be argued that Joint Stock Company founders seemed to prefer to ride a tide- their entrepreneurial drive being motivated by (and perhaps further feeding) ‘rising expectations’. 4. Preliminary time series analysis indicates that GDP is a trend stationary process with a low deterministic trend component while paid-in capital is a difference stationary process. Capital persistence indicates negative association implying caution on the part of the investors given the uncertain economic context. Despite the absence of a Slutsky effect, the GDP series may have been induced by applying Kuznets transformations to an otherwise white noise process. In fact, the spectral density of GDP exhibits a long-cycle of about 18 years at the lowest frequency with subsequent dampening. 5. Further analysis provides evidence in favour of an equilibrium relationship between gross incorporation as measured by paid in capital commitment and GDP. Short-run dynamics imply that the propensity to commit capital is positive and equal to 2.26 in case of total and 2.99 in case of agricultural GDP. Moreover, it is paid-in capital which provides evidence in favour of equilibrium adjustment as opposed to GDP. Given our preliminary finding of a deterministic trend in paid-in capital, our evidence of co-integration is restricted to the stochastic trend component of the series. 6. Despite the lack of an underlying structural economic model for gross incorporation and the macro-economy, we may exploit the efficient markets hypothesis, according to which the structural equilibrium adjustment parameter of paid-in capital should equal unity. Our empirical findings indicate that it is negative and close to one. Thus, even though economic context matters, it is paid-in capital which drives expectations. 7. There is evidence that paid-in capital is Granger-caused by GDP. Causality is mutual in case of agricultural GDP (yet marginally significant at the 10% level) since agricultural GDP is Granger-caused by paid-in capital as well. This finding implies transformation of agricultural surplus into capital value despite the rather uncertain economic environment. 8. Paid-in capital is the primary determinant of gross incorporation. There is evidence that an increase in paid-in capital increases the probability of JSC births in a year by 21-23% with associated elasticity of around 3. Moreover, there is evidence of over-dispersion in the Poisson conditional mean of 44.3%. Following our previous analysis, the source of this over-dispersion is the domination of the sectoral distribution of JSC births by financial services. Keywords: joint-stock company birth counts, time series application, historical conjuncture, Granger causality, GDP, Greece JEL: C2
- The Decline of the U.S. Rust Belt: A Macroeconomic Analysis
Date: 2012 By: Lee Ohanian (University of California Los Angeles)
David Lagakos (Arizona State University)
Simeon Alder (University of Notre Dame)
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed012:793&r=his Some regions of the United States fared much worse than others since the end of WWII. In this paper we document that those regions faring worst in terms of wage and employment growth from 1950-2000 tended to be those in which workers earned the largest wage premiums in 1950. We use this evidence to develop a theory of the decline of the “Rust Belt” region, which was highly unionized and paid workers substantially more than other workers of similar skill levels. We develop our theory in a two-region, open-economy version of the Neoclassical Growth model, which we parameterize to match key features of regional and aggregate data. We then use the model to ask how much differently the Rust Belt would have fared if its labor market had not been as distorted.
- La diversidad de los capitalismos latinoamericanos : los casos de Argentina, Brasil y México.
Date: 2012-07 By: Bizberg, Ilan
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ner:dauphi:urn:hdl:123456789/11310&r=his Keywords: Amérique latine; capitalisme périphérique; développement; diversité des capitalismes; development; institutions; Latin America; peripheral capitalism; varieties of capitalism; America Latina; capitalismo periférico; desarrollo; diversidad de capitalismos; instituciones; JEL: O54
- Does Productivity Decline after Promotion? The Case of French Academia
Date: 2012-09-01 By: Mareva Sabatier (IREGE – Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie – Université de Savoie) URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00825985&r=his The present research examined the effect of promotion decisions on ex-post productivity in French academia. As, once promotion decisions are known, most external incentives vanish for promoted candidates, their productivity was expected to decrease. This hypothesis was tested by using an original dataset and matching methods to evaluate the impact of promotion on publication scores. The robustness of the matching estimates was tested using sensitivity analysis. The results clearly show that the removal of extrinsic incentives following promotion does not lead to a fall in productivity in French academia. Keywords: promotions ; extrinsic and intrinsic incentives ; academic career
- Does it Matter Which Citation Tool is Used to Compare the H-Index of a Group of Highly Cited Researchers?
Date: 2012-11 By: Farhadi , Hadi
Salehi , Hadi
Md Yunus , Melor
Arezoo , Aghaei Chadegani
Farhadi , Maryam
Fooladi , Masood
Ale Ebrahim, Nader
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:47414&r=his h-index retrieved by citation indexes (Scopus, Google scholar, and Web of Science) is used to measure the scientific performance and the research impact studies based on the number of publications and citations of a scientist. It also is easily available and may be used for performance measures of scientists, and for recruitment decisions. The aim of this study is to investigate the difference between the outputs and results from these three citation databases namely Scopus, Google Scholar, and Web of Science based upon the h-index of a group of highly cited researchers (Nobel Prize winner scientist). The purposive sampling method was adopted to collect the required data. The results showed that there is a significant difference in the h-index between three citation indexes of Scopus, Google scholar, and Web of Science; the Google scholar h-index was more than the h-index in two other databases. It was also concluded that there is a significant positive relationship between h-indices based on Google scholar and Scopus. The citation indexes of Scopus, Google scholar, and Web of Science may be useful for evaluating h-index of scientists but they have some limitations as well. Keywords: h-index, Scopus, Google Scholar, Web of Science, Nobel Prize, Physics, Chemistry, Economic Sciences. JEL: A1
- Social Democracy and Distributive Conflict in the UK, 1950-2010
Date: 2013-06 By: Carlo V. Fiorio (University of Milan)
Simon Mohun (Queen Mary, University of London)
Roberto Veneziani (Queen Mary, University of London)
URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp705&r=his In the last three decades, two questions have been central for the Left. Is there a future for electoral socialism and social democracy? And, is it any longer possible to promote a significant redistribution of income in favour of labour? Political and economic events seem to suggest negative answers. In his influential work, Adam Przeworski suggests that this is an irreversible trend that makes it impossible in the long-run to promote genuinely socialist objectives in capitalist democracies. In particular, the structural dependence of labour on capital severely constrains feasible income distributions. In this paper, a detailed quantitative and qualitative analysis of the post-war UK economy is provided which casts doubts on the structural dependence thesis. A short run profit-squeeze mechanism seems to exist, but income shares are more variable than the structural dependence argument suggests, and the power resources available to the two main classes in the economy are among the key determinants of distributive outcomes, different political-economic equilibria corresponding to different configurations of the balance of power between the two classes. Keywords: Social democracy, Income distribution, Structural dependence thesis JEL: D33
- Vigencia de las Contribuciones de Milton Friedman en TeorÃa y PolÃtica Monetaria
Date: 2013 By: Francisco Rosende URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ioe:doctra:435&r=his La contribuciÃ³n de Milton Friedman en el Ã¡mbito de la TeorÃa y PolÃtica Monetaria estÃ¡ Ãntimamente asociada con el concepto de ‘monetarismo’, de acuerdo con el cuÃ¡l los movimientos de la cantidad de dinero tienen un efecto importante sobre la marcha de la economÃa, por lo que es necesario vigilar atentamente su crecimiento. Sin embargo, los alcances de los aportes de Friedman a esta Ã¡rea de la teorÃa economÃa exceden considerablemente sus clÃ¡sicos puntos de vista con respecto a la validez de la teorÃa cuantitativa del dinero como marco de referencia para el estudio y diseÃ±o de la polÃtica monetaria, cÃ³mo podremos apreciar tras una revisiÃ³n de estos.
- Growth and Demography in Turkey: Economic History vs. Pro-Natalist Rhetoric
Date: 2013-05-24 By: Attar, M. Aykut URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:47275&r=his This paper projects the effects of exogenous fertility changes in Turkey on the age structure of population and the standards of living using a semi-reduced-form model of economic growth and demographic change. Both the technological progress and the fertility rate are endogenous. The calibrated version of the model delivers three important results: First, technological progress will be the major source of economic growth in Turkey in the upcoming decades. Second, even with a non-declining saving rate, the population aging will result in a growth slowdown since technological progress is not fast enough in Turkey. Third, even under an increasing rate of technological progress, a permanent upward shift in fertility levels would imply, relative to the benchmark, a significantly lower level of output per capita, a remarkably higher level of dependent population, and a persistently lower share of the working-age population for many decades. These results suggest that the priority of policy-makers in Turkey should be technological progress. The pro-natalist rhetoric, even if it proves to be strong enough to persuade the people of Turkey to have more children in the near future, does not have any economic significance. Keywords: fertility, population aging, population policy, technological progress. JEL: C63