HISTORIA DE LAS FINANZAS PÚBLICAS EN MÉXICO Y AMÉRICA LATINA Y SUS ARCHIVOS PARA EL SIGLO XXI

a celebrarse en el Auditorio Alfonso Reyes de El Colegio de México en cuatro mesas redondas.

Estamos muy agradecidos y honrados con su participación.

Saludos cordiales,

Carlos Marichal

Cartel_invitaci�n_hacienda.pdf

La Dirección de Estudios Históricos

del Instituto Nacional de Antropología e Historia

en el marco del ciclo de conferencias
Historia digital y bases de datos

Presenta
Espejo de historiadores, catálogo de tesis de historia de México, 1931-2011
Comité Mexicano de Ciencias Históricas

a cargo de la Dra.
Verónica Zárate Toscano (Instituto Mora-CONACYT)

Martes 31 de enero de 2012, 10:30 hrs.
Sala de Juntas de la Dirección

Dirección de Estudios Históricos
Allende 172 esq. Juárez, Tlalpan Centro.
México, D.F. CP 14000

Informes.
4040 5100 ext. 126 y 149
www.estudioshistoricos.inah.gob.mx
difusion.deh @ inah.gob.mx
http://estudioshistoricosinah.blogspot.com

Saludos

Dr. Guillermo Guajardo Soto

Guillermo Guajardo

gmogsoto @ yahoo.com.mx

Guajardo NeolibHisSEM2012-2.pdf

UFJF – Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora

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em História Econômica

História Quantitativa e Georreferenciada

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Os fundos e documentos disponíveis até o momento são fundamentalmente da seção Colônia, mas em brevo deverá ser oferecido ao público o acervo da Seção do “Archivo Anexo”, com mais ou menos 2.000.000 documentos.

Nossas efusivas felicitações por esta iniciativa à equipe responsável do AGN/Colômbia.



Grupo de Pesquisa em História Econômica – História Quantitativa e Georreferenciada – UFJF

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In this issue we have:

1. Rationality and choices in economics: behavioral and evolutionationary approaches Graziano , Mario; Schilirò, Daniele
2. Resources and Economic Dynamics, Technology and Rents Alberto Quadrio Curzio
3. Warrant Economics, Call-Put Policy Options and the Fallacies of Economic Theory Hatgioannides, John; Karanassou, Marika
4. Die Sittlichkeit der Wirtschaft: Von Effizienz- und Differenzierungstheorien zu einer Theorie wirtschaftlicher Felder Beckert, Jens
5. Cooperative Games with Incomplete Information: Some Open Problems Francoise Forges; Roberto Serrano
6. Cognitive load in the multi-player prisoner’s dilemma game Duffy, Sean; Smith, John
7. On Partial Honesty Nash Implementation Ahmed Doghmi, National Institute of Statistics and Applied Economics, Madinat Al Irfane, Rabat Institutes, 13000 Rabat, Morocco; Abderrahmane ZIAD, University of Caen Basse-Normandie, CREM (UMR CNRS)
8. On the measurement of social progress and well being: some further thoughts Jean Paul Fitoussi; Joseph Stiglitz
9. How Unjust! An Experimental Investigation of Supervisors’ Evaluation Errors and Agents’ Incentives Marchegiani, Lucia; Reggiani, Tommaso; Rizzolli, Matteo
10. Social identity and competitiveness Dargnies, Marie-Pierre
11. The Emotional Consequences of Pro-social Behavior in Markets Toke Fosgaard
12. "Das wird man wohl noch sagen dürfen" – oder: Was hat Thilo Sarrazin eigentlich mit dem Sturm und Drang zu tun? Lange, Carolin Dorothée
13. Equal pay and dilemmas of justice Cathrine Holst
14. Human rights as demands for communicative action Gauri, Varun; Brinks, Daniel M.
15. Convergent learning algorithms for potential games with unknown noisy rewards Archie C. Chapman; David S. Leslie; Alex Rogers; Nicholas R. Jennings
16. Penser l’action par les excuses Hervé Dumez
17. Où vont stationner les taxis (et leurs concurrents) ? Richard Darbéra
18. Who Acts More Like a Game Theorist? Group and Individual Play in a Sequential Market Game and the Effect of the Time Horizon Wieland Mueller; Fangfang Tan
19. You Better Play 7: Mutual versus Common Knowledge of Advice in a Weak-link Experiment Giovanna Devetag; Hykel Hosni; Giacomo Sillari
20. Manipulationsanreize im Gale-Shapley-Algorithmus: Ein Literaturüberblick Hübner, Frank
21. Where It All Began: Lending of Last Resort and the Bank of England During the Overend, Gurney Panic of 1866. Marc Flandreau; Stefano Ugolini
22. On Fairness of Equilibria in Economies with Differential Information Achille Basile; Maria Gabriella Graziano; Maria Laura Pesce
23. The lifeboat problem Konrad, Kai A.; Kovenock, Dan
24. Game complete analysis of symmetric Cournot duopoly Carfì, David; Perrone, Emanuele

Contents.

1. Rationality and choices in economics: behavioral and evolutionationary approaches
   

   Date:	2012-01
   By:	Graziano , Mario Schilirò, Daniele
   URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:35971&r=hpe
   The paper critically discusses the issue of rationality and choices in economics in both the behavioural and evolutionary approaches. Our study aims, on the one hand, to highlight the scientific contributions of psychology in economics, since psychology, and with it the theoretical approach of the behavioral economics, has made more complex and problematic the analysis of economic choices, showing the limits of rationality. On the other hand, the work offers a reinterpretation of the theory of Alfred Marshall in a biologicalevolutionary perspective. The reinterpretation of Marshall’s theory in a evolutionary perspective aims to show that, historically, economics has not been a discipline aligned in a homogenous way to a single and undifferentiated thought, locked into the idea of perfect rationality, but, on the opposite, is a discipline that has enriched itself and continually is enriching by contributions and significant contaminations with other research fields.
   Keywords:	rationality; choices; behavioral economics; evolutionary theories; biology;
   JEL:	D03

2. Resources and Economic Dynamics, Technology and Rents
   

   Date:	2011
   By:	Alberto Quadrio Curzio
   URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crn:wpaper:crn1102&r=hpe
   The essay investigates non producible (natural) resources and rent from three points of views: stylized facts, quantitative economics and economic theory. Taking the first point of view, the author discusses how economic growth can be represented in terms of never-ending tension between scarcity and technical progress. At least since the onset of modern economic growth, whenever scarcity produced a slowdown of growth, technical progress followed and scarcity was thereby removed. Scarcity, in a long-run perspective, has always been of the «relative» type, while absolute scarcity never set in. This essay consider this problem from many points of view. First of all it considers the point of view of quantitative economics like those of Simon Kuznets and Wassily Leontief who emphasized the relative character of scarcity and the importance of keeping the relationship between scarcity and innovation into account (this is especially true of Kuznets). Secondly the essay considers the contribution of economic theory. In this connection, the author points out that both the macroeconomic and multi-sectoral models developed since the 1930s overlooked the investigation of scarce natural resources and rent, as well as their relationship with technical progress. Only Piero Sraffa examined non producible resources and rent but he has done it in a single-period model. The author of this essay investigated the same issues in a more general analytical set-up starting with a contribution published in 1967 followed by many others. Later on, Quadrio Curzio and Pellizzari, especially in the 1996 volume, analyzed the general relationships among production, prices, income distribution, technical progress and growth when scarce resources play a significant role. Those contributions also investigated the nature of technological rents, which are an important feature of modern economic growth in the presence of technical progress. At the same time Quadrio Curzio, in collaboration with Marco Fortis and Roberto Zoboli, analysed historical, quantitative and qualitative aspects of economic dynamics, and the way in which natural resources and raw materials exert an influence on economic growth and more generally economic dynamics. Those aspects are not fully considered in the present essay, but they represent its fundamental background. Finally in 2008 Quadrio Curzio, Pellizzari and Zoboli outlined in a valuable encyclopaedic dictionary a compact synthesis of the above approach to the economic analysis of raw materials and primary commodities. The essay takes a point of view which is not typical of the «post- Keynesian» approach, yet it belongs to a post-classical perspective that is closely connected to the Italian-Cambridge tradition of political economy as a social discipline. Tradition on which Alberto Quadrio Curzio, especially researching with Roberto Scazzieri, focused his attention in many essays from a methodological point of view.
   Keywords:	natural resources; technological innovation; relative scarcity; investments; rent;
   JEL:	O10

3. Warrant Economics, Call-Put Policy Options and the Fallacies of Economic Theory
   

   Date:	2011-12
   By:	Hatgioannides, John (City University London) Karanassou, Marika (University of London)
   URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6251&r=hpe
   In this paper we aim to trace the roots of the ongoing economic mayhem and to unmask the chorus of the tragedy which plays on the world stage. The main thesis of our work is that, despite the triumphant rhetoric praising the merits of perfect competition, the global fields of the dysfunctional market system have mushroomed in what we call Warrant Economics for the Free-Market Aristocracy. Warrant Economics unfolds in two symbiotic tenets that constitute the subtle architecture of the neoliberal edifice: (i) the systemic creation and preservation of inequality via Call-Put policy options, and (ii) the systemic exploitation of inequality via novel and toxic forms of securitisation. In effect, the power structure of insiders’ capitalism that we describe, trough the costless appropriation of an intricate cobweb of Call-Put structures, has distorted competition and accelerated economic concentration. We view the income distribution effect, which favours the top 1%, and the business concentration effect, which gravitates competition towards oligopolistic/monopolistic industries, as the two sides of the Warrant Economics coin. We argue that the Warrant Economics state of capitalism has been legitimised by a degenerating research programme blossomed under the fallacy that economics is the “physics of society”. In this faculty of thought, we perceive the Great Recession as a symptom of Warrant Economics, rather than as a tsunami-like event.
   Keywords:	income distribution, monopoly, securitisation, Call-Put policy options, Warrant Economics, Great Recession, sovereign debt
   JEL:	E66

4. Die Sittlichkeit der Wirtschaft: Von Effizienz- und Differenzierungstheorien zu einer Theorie wirtschaftlicher Felder
   

   Date:	2011
   By:	Beckert, Jens
   URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mpifgw:118&r=hpe
   Auch die Wirtschaft moderner Gesellschaften folgt nicht einfach einer ökonomischen Eigengesetzlichkeit, sondern konstituiert sich aus ihrer Einbettung in ein Gefüge sittlicher Werte, Interessen und sozialer Macht. Von welcher theoretischen Grundlage lässt sich die Sittlichkeit der Wirtschaft beschreiben? In dem Artikel zeige ich in kritischer Auseinandersetzung mit der auf der Neoklassik aufbauenden orthodoxen Wirtschaftstheorie, dass es gerade deren normativer Charakter ist, der verhindert, Normen einen angemessenen Platz einzuräumen. Es ist jedoch verfehlt zu denken, dass die Soziologie per se hierzu eine angemessene Alternative anbieten würde. Weder die funktionalistische Differenzierungstheorie noch Teile der Wirtschaftssoziologie werden der Herausforderung gerecht. Vielversprechender erscheint, wirtschaftliche Strukturen mit dem Instrumentarium der Theorie sozialer Felder zu analysieren. — The economy of modern societies does not simply operate according to its own inherent laws, but is embedded in a moral order, interests, and in social power. Upon what theoretical basis can we describe the morality of the economy? Critically reflecting on orthodox neoclassical economics, I argue that it is the normative character of neoclassical theory which stands in the way of improving our understanding of the normative foundations of the economy. It would be wrong, however, to think that sociology necessarily offers a more adequate alternative. Neither functionalist theories of social differentiation nor certain strands of the new economic sociology are up to the challenge. Using the toolkit provided by the theory of social fields seems to be the more promising way to investigate economic structures.

5. Cooperative Games with Incomplete Information: Some Open Problems
   

   Date:	2011
   By:	Francoise Forges Roberto Serrano
   URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bro:econwp:2011-15&r=hpe
   This is a brief survey describing some of the recent progress and open problems in the area of cooperative games with incomplete information. We discuss exchange economies, cooperative Bayesian games with orthogonal coalitions, and issues of cooperation in non-cooperative Bayesian games.
   Keywords:	#

6. Cognitive load in the multi-player prisoner’s dilemma game
   

   Date:	2012-01-11
   By:	Duffy, Sean Smith, John
   URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:35906&r=hpe
   We find that differences in the ability to devote cognitive resources to a strategic interaction imply differences in strategic behavior. In our experiment, we manipulate the availability of cognitive resources by applying a differential cognitive load. In cognitive load experiments, subjects are directed to perform a task which occupies cognitive resources, in addition to making a choice in another domain. The greater the cognitive resources required for the task implies that fewer such resources will be available for deliberation on the choice. Although much is known about how subjects make decisions under a cognitive load, little is known about how this affects behavior in strategic games. We run an experiment in which subjects play a repeated multi-player prisoner’s dilemma game under two cognitive load treatments. In one treatment, subjects are placed under a high cognitive load (given a 7 digit number to recall) and subjects in the other are placed under a low cognitive load (given a 2 digit number). We find that the behavior of the subjects in the low load condition converges to the Subgame Perfect Nash Equilibrium prediction at a faster rate than those in the high load treatment. However, we do not find the corresponding relationship involving outcomes in the game. Specifically, there is no evidence of a significantly different convergence of game outcomes across treatments. As an explanation of these two results, we find evidence that low load subjects are better able to condition their behavior on the outcomes of previous periods.
   Keywords:	cognitive resources; experimental economics; experimental game theory; public goods game
   JEL:	C72

7. On Partial Honesty Nash Implementation
   

   Date:	2012-01
   By:	Ahmed Doghmi, National Institute of Statistics and Applied Economics, Madinat Al Irfane, Rabat Institutes, 13000 Rabat, Morocco Abderrahmane ZIAD, University of Caen Basse-Normandie, CREM (UMR CNRS)
   URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tut:cremwp:201201&r=hpe
   An agent is said to be partially honest if he or she weakly prefers an outcome at a strategy profile with his truthful strategy than an outcome at a strategy profile with his false strategy, then this player must prefer strictly the \true" strategy profille to the \false" strategy profile. In this paper we consider an exchange economy with single peaked preferences. With many agents (n ≥3), if there exists at least one partially honest agent, we prove that any solution of the problem of fair division satisfying unanimity is Nash implementable.
   Keywords:	Nash implementation; Partial honesty; Single-peaked preferences
   JEL:	C72

8. On the measurement of social progress and well being: some further thoughts
   

   Date:	2011-10
   By:	Jean Paul Fitoussi (Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques) Joseph Stiglitz (Columbia University)
   URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fce:doctra:1119&r=hpe
   Two years after the delivery of the report on The Measurement of Economic Performances and Social Progress (Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi),this paper provides some further reflections on the subject. Since 2008, when the work of the Commission began, the world has experienced several dramatic events which all call into question our measurement systems and the policies which were grounded on them: the financial crisis of 2007-2008, the grave events in Japan, the Sovereign debt crisis, and the revolutions in the Arabic world. In particular, the Japanese earthquake and its aftermath underlines three central shortcomings of our metrics: the measurement of the economic product,the measurement of well being, and the measurement of sustainability. For economists, these concerns are especially important, because we often rely on statistical (econometric analyses) to make inferences about what are good policies. Those inferences are only as reliable as the metrics that they are based on. Our statistical systems should tell us whether or not what we are doing is sustainable, economically, environmentally, politically, or socially and whether proposed policies will in fact enhance well-being . There would be little sense in pursuing policies aimed at increasing some widely used metric like GDP ifsuch policies lead to a decrease in well being.
   Keywords:	1- Economic indicators 2- Gross Domestic Products 3-Social indicators 4- Well being 5- Sustainability
   JEL:	E01

9. How Unjust! An Experimental Investigation of Supervisors’ Evaluation Errors and Agents’ Incentives
   

   Date:	2011-12
   By:	Marchegiani, Lucia (University of Rome 3) Reggiani, Tommaso (University of Bologna) Rizzolli, Matteo (Free University of Bozen/Bolzano)
   URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6254&r=hpe
   In our simple model the supervisor: i) cannot observe the agent’s effort; ii) aims at inducing the agent to exert high effort; but iii) can only offer rewards based on performance. Since performance is only stochastically related to effort, evaluation errors may occur. In particular, deserving agents that have exerted high effort may not be rewarded (Type I errors) and undeserving agents that have exerted low effort may be rewarded (Type II errors). We show that, although the model predicts both errors to be equally detrimental to performance, this prediction fails with a lab experiment. In fact, failing to reward deserving agents is significantly more detrimental than rewarding undeserving agents. We discuss our result in the light of some economic and managerial theories of behavior. Our result may have interesting implications for strategic human resource management and personnel economics and may also contribute to the debate about incentives and organizational performance.
   Keywords:	agency theory, organizational justice, compensation, type I and type II errors, real effort
   JEL:	C91

10. Social identity and competitiveness
    

    Date:	2011
    By:	Dargnies, Marie-Pierre
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbmbh:spii2011202&r=hpe
    Recent experimental results indicate that women do not like competitive environments as much as men do. Another literature is interested in the effect of social identity on economic behaviors. This paper investigates in the lab the impact of social identity on men and women’s willingness to compete both individually and as part of a team. To this aim, participants from the Identity sessions had to go through group identity building activities in the lab while participants from the Benchmark sessions did not. The main result is that men are only willing to enter a team competition with a teammate of unknown ability if they share a common group identity with him or her. This change of behavior seems to be caused by high-performing men who are less reluctant to be matched with a possibly less able participant when he or she belongs to his group. On the other hand, group identity does not seem to induce women to take actions more in the interest of the group they belong to. –
    Keywords:	Social Identity,Gender Effects,Tournament,Teams

11. The Emotional Consequences of Pro-social Behavior in Markets
    

    Date:	2011-12
    By:	Toke Fosgaard (Institute of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen)
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:foi:wpaper:2012_1&r=hpe
    Pro-social behavior made when buying private goods is becoming increasingly popular. Several findings from behavioral and experimental economics however emphasizes that people are less pro-social in such situations, compared to pro-social decisions in non-market contexts. This paper suggests that emotional responses are important explanations of this finding. It is first argued that the emotional response to a pro-social decision combined with private good purchase is different from the response to a similar decision in a non-market situation. Through evidence from a laboratory experiment, it is then found, that deciding on a social choice in a market exchange involves a less positive emotional reaction to others, compared to non-market situations. Moreover, subjects in market contexts are found to be less responsive to other subjects’ contribution behavior, relative to the non-market contexts.
    Keywords:	Emotions; market exchange; pro-social behavior
    JEL:	C92

12. "Das wird man wohl noch sagen dürfen" – oder: Was hat Thilo Sarrazin eigentlich mit dem Sturm und Drang zu tun?
    

    Date:	2011
    By:	Lange, Carolin Dorothée
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mpifgw:119&r=hpe
    Thilo Sarrazins Deutschland schafft sich ab ist eines der meistverkauften Bücher der deutschen Nachkriegszeit. Es ist viel darüber diskutiert worden, ob der Text rassistisch, sozialdarwinistisch oder diffamierend ist und was die hohen Verkaufszahlen über die deutsche Gesellschaft aussagen. Wenig hingegen hat man sich mit der tatsächlichen Rezeption des Buches beschäftigt, und genau dies ist das Ziel dieses Artikels. Quellengrundlage sind die (Laien-)Rezensionen drei maßgeblicher Online-Bücherportale (amazon.de, buecher.de und bol.de). Als Ergebnis kann festgehalten werden, dass die von den Rezensenten benutzten Narrative und Deutungsmuster alles andere als neu sind: Sie gleichen den Schlagworten der ästhetischen Bewegung des Sturm und Drang (was unter anderem eine vehemente Kritik an sozialen Eliten beinhaltet) und reaktivieren sie. Gleichzeitig wird deutlich, dass Themen wie Integration oder Demografie überraschenderweise nur eine untergeordnete Rolle bei der Wahrnehmung des Buches spielen. — Thilo Sarrazin’s Deutschland schafft sich ab (‘Germany Does Away With Itself’) is one of the best-selling books of the German postwar era. Much has been discussed of whether the book is racist, social Darwinist, or defamatory, and what the high sales figures say about German society. By contrast, there has been little work done on how the book has actually been received. This article aims to do precisely that, by using (lay) reviews from three influential online booksellers (amazon.de, buecher.de and bol.de) as source material. The reviews establish that the narratives and interpretive patterns used by the reviewers are anything but new: they closely resemble the watchwords of the Sturm und Drang aesthetic movement (which included vehement criticism of social elites) and reactivate these. At the same time, a study of such patterns makes it clear that topics such as integration and democracy have played a surprisingly subordinate role in how the book has been perceived.

13. Equal pay and dilemmas of justice
    

    Date:	2011-12-15
    By:	Cathrine Holst
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erp:reconx:p0114&r=hpe
    Equal pay for work of equal value is a fundamental principle in EU law and so in the EEA Agreement. The paper takes as its point of departure the debate in Norway on the interpretation of EEA equal pay legislation, and relates this debate to the broader equal pay controversy in Norway. Among arguments on both sides in these debates have been arguments about what is right and just: Whereas proponents for strong equal pay commitments typically stress that social justice requires work of equal value to be paid as equally as possible, if necessary by means of state intervention and law enforcement (the law enforcement position), proponents for weaker equal pay commitments stress typically either (1) the relative justice of markets; pay ought primarily to be distributed through markets and according to market value and not according to some market-external equality standard (the free market position), or (2) that wages should be set as far as possible by strong democratic unions that negotiate with employers and employers’ organizations (the collective bargaining position). The paper focuses on the law enforcement /collective bargaining confrontations and interprets these confrontations as reflecting dilemmas of justice (Nancy Fraser); in part a redistribution/recognition dilemma; in part a justice-from-above/justice-from-below dilemma. Finally, the paper investigates to what extent these dilemmas are genuine. Are there ways to narrow down the gap between the law enforcement camp and the collective bargaining camp?
    Keywords:	democracy; gender policy

14. Human rights as demands for communicative action
    

    Date:	2012-01-01
    By:	Gauri, Varun Brinks, Daniel M.
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5951&r=hpe
    A key issue with human rights is how to allocate duties correlative to rights claims. But the philosophical literature, drawing largely on naturalistic or interactional accounts of human rights, develops answers to this question that do not illuminate actual human rights problems. Charles Beitz, in recent work, attempts to develop a conception of human rights more firmly rooted in, and helpful for, current practice. While a move in the right direction, his account does not incorporate the domestic practice of human rights, and as a result remains insufficiently instructive for many human rights challenges. This paper addresses the problem of allocating correlative duties by taking the practices of domestic courts in several countries as a normative benchmark. Upon reviewing how courts in Colombia, India, South Africa, Indonesia, and elsewhere have allocated duties associated with socio-economic rights, the paper finds that courts urge parties to move from an adversarial to an investigative mode, impose requirements that parties argue in good faith, and structure a public forum of communication. The conclusion argues that judicial practice involves requiring respondents to engage in communicative, instead of strategic, action, and explores the implications of this understanding of human rights.
    Keywords:	Human Rights,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Parliamentary Government,Gender and Law,Health Law

15. Convergent learning algorithms for potential games with unknown noisy rewards
    

    Date:	2011-08
    By:	Archie C. Chapman (The University of Sydney Business School) David S. Leslie (The University of Bristol) Alex Rogers (The University of Southampton) Nicholas R. Jennings (The University of Southampton)
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:syb:wpbsba:05/2011&r=hpe
    In this paper, we address the problem of convergence to Nash equilibria in games with rewards that are initially unknown and which must be estimated over time from noisy observations. These games arise in many real-world applications, whenever rewards for actions cannot be prespecified and must be learned on-line. Standard results in game theory, however, do not consider such settings. Specifically, using results from stochastic approximation and differential inclusions, we prove the convergence of variants of fictitious play and adaptive play to Nash equilibria in potential games and weakly acyclic games, respectively. These variants all use a multi-agent version of Q-learning to estimate the reward functions and a novel form of the e-greedy decision rule to select an action. Furthermore, we derive e-greedy decision rules that exploit the sparse interaction structure encoded in two compact graphical representations of games, known as graphical and hypergraphical normal form, to improve the convergence rate of the learning algorithms. The structure captured in these representations naturally occurs in many distributed optimisation and control applications. Finally, we demonstrate the efficacy of the algorithms in a simulated ad hoc wireless sensor network management problem.
    Keywords:	Game theory, distributed optimisation, learning in games.

16. Penser l’action par les excuses
    

    Date:	2011
    By:	Hervé Dumez (CRG – Centre de recherche en gestion – CNRS : UMR7655 – Polytechnique – X)
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00657397&r=hpe
    L’action constitue l’objet d’analyse fondamental des chercheurs en sciences sociales (gestionnaires, sociologues, politistes, psychologues, économistes même peut-être). Il s’agit par ailleurs d’une des réalités les plus banales et les plus universelles, les plus évidentes. Mais peut-on la penser, et si oui, comment ? Sur ce thème, John Langshaw Austin a écrit un texte aussi étrange que profond.
    Keywords:	performativité du langage; John Langshaw Austin; excuses organisationnelles; analyse du langage ordinaire; aporie

17. Où vont stationner les taxis (et leurs concurrents) ?
    

    Date:	2011-05
    By:	Richard Darbéra (LATTS – Laboratoire Techniques, Territoires et Sociétés – Université Paris Est Marne-la-Vallée – Ecole des Ponts ParisTech – CNRS : UMR8134 – Université Paris Est)
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00659982&r=hpe
    Le stationnement dans l’attente de clients est un enjeu central dans la concurrence qui oppose les taxis aux autres voitures de location avec chauffeur. Qu’il s’agisse du stationnement sur la voie publique, qui est en France un monopole des taxis, ou dans les gares et les aéroports, ou encore dans les espaces privés, la possibilité de stationner confère un avantage économique qui est souvent l’objet de conflits.
    Keywords:	Taxi, concurrence, stationnement

18. Who Acts More Like a Game Theorist? Group and Individual Play in a Sequential Market Game and the Effect of the Time Horizon
    

    Date:	2011-10
    By:	Wieland Mueller Fangfang Tan
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpi:wpaper:who_acts_more_like_a_game_theorist&r=hpe
    Previous experimental results on one-shot sequential two-player games show that group decisions are closer to the subgame-perfect Nash equilbirum than individual decisions. We extend the analysis of inter-group versus inter-individual decision making to a Stackelberg market game, by running both one-shot and repeated markets. Whereas in the one-shot markets we find no significant differences in the behavior of groups and individuals, we find that the behavior of groups is further away from the subgame-perfect equilibrium of the stage game than that of individuals. To a large extent, this result is independent of the method of eliciting choices (sequential or strategy method) and the method used to account for observed first- and second-mover behavior. We provide evidence on followers’ response functions and electronic chats to offer an explanation for the differential effect that the time horizon of interaction has on the extent of individual and group players (non)conformity with subgame perfectness.
    Keywords:	Stackelberg market, groups versus individuals, discontinuity effect, experiment
    JEL:	C72

19. You Better Play 7: Mutual versus Common Knowledge of Advice in a Weak-link Experiment
    

    Date:	2012-01-17
    By:	Giovanna Devetag Hykel Hosni Giacomo Sillari
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2012/01&r=hpe
    This paper presents the results of an experiment on mutual versus common knowl- edge of advice in a two-player weak-link game with random matching. Our experimen- tal subjects play in pairs for thirteen rounds. After a brief learning phase common to all treatments, we vary the knowledge levels associated with external advice given in the form of a suggestion to pick the strategy supporting the payo-dominant equilib- rium. In the mutual knowledge of level 1 treatment, the suggestion appears on every subject’s monitor at the beginning of every round, with no common knowledge that everybody sees the same suggestion. In the mutual knowledge of level 2 treatment, the same suggestion appears on each subject’s monitor, accompanied by the request to "send" the suggestion to the partner in the round, followed by a notication that the message has been read. Finally, in the common knowledge treatment, the suggestion is read aloud by the experimenter at the end of the learning phase. Our results are somewhat surprising and can be summarized as follows: in all our treatments both the choice of the efficiency-inducing action and the percentage of e cient equilibrium play are higher with respect to the control treatment, revealing that even a condition as weak as mutual knowledge of level 1 is sufficient to signicantly increase the salience of the e cient equilibrium with respect to the absence of advice. Furthermore, and contrary to our hypothesis, mutual knowledge of level 2 (as the one occurring in our "message" treatment) induces successful coordination more frequently than common knowledge.
    Keywords:	Coordination games; experimental philosophy; epistemic attitudes, weak-link game; conventions
    JEL:	D01

20. Manipulationsanreize im Gale-Shapley-Algorithmus: Ein Literaturüberblick
    

    Date:	2011
    By:	Hübner, Frank
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbmbh:spii2011203&r=hpe
    Die von Gale und Shapley in ihrem 1962 veröffentlichten Artikel College Admissions and the Stability of Marriage vorgestellte deferred acceptance procedure hat in der Literatur zu einer umfassenden Diskussion über Zuordnungsverfahren auf zweiseitigen Märkten geführt, die sich mit der Fragestellung beschäftigen, wie die Agenten zweier disjunkter Mengen anhand gegenseitiger Präferenzlisten einander zugeordnet werden können. Dem von Gale und Shapley vorgestellten Algorithmus kam dabei in den letzten Jahren nicht nur in der Theorie eine große Bedeutung zu, sondern auch in der Praxis wird dem Versagen zahlreicher Märkte mit solchen Mechanismen entgegengetreten. Diese Arbeit geht ausführlich auf die von Gale und Shapley entwickelte deferred acceptance procedure und die sich hieraus ergebenden Manipulationsanreize auf zweiseitigen Märkten anhand des Hochzeits- und college admissions-Problems ein. Die im jeweiligen Modell resultierenden Manipulationsanreize werden in vier Arten von Manipulationen gegliedert – die Manipulation anhand von Präferenzen, anhand vorzeitiger bilateraler Vereinbarungen, anhand von endowments und anhand der Quote – und jeweils miteinander verglichen. Dabei wird deutlich, dass weder die deferred acceptance procedure noch irgendein anderes Zuordnungsverfahren, das stabile Zuordnungen ergibt, vollständig immun gegen Manipulationen ist. Anhand zahlreicher Theoreme und Überlegungen kann jedoch gezeigt werden, dass die Anreize oft nur für eine Seite des Marktes existieren und bei größer werdenden Märkten in der Praxis sogar abnehmen. — The deferred acceptance procedure introduced by Gale and Shapley in their article College Admissions and the Stability of Marriage (1962) led to a huge and still growing discussion in the literature on two-sided matching markets. The algorithm didn’t only become important in theory but is also often used in practice by policymakers to confront market failure. This paper explains the deferred acceptance procedure in detail and presents a survey on the resulting manipulability on twosided matching markets, e.g., within the marriage and college admissions problem. The incentives to manipulate are categorized in four groups of manipulations – manipulation via preferences, via pre-arranged matches, via endowments and via capacities – and are then compared for both problems. It is shown that there exists no stable matching procedure that is strategy-proof for all agents. But in practice many incentives to manipulate only apply to one side of the market and decrease with the size of the market.
    Keywords:	Matching,university admission,manipulation,strategic behavior
    JEL:	C78

21. Where It All Began: Lending of Last Resort and the Bank of England During the Overend, Gurney Panic of 1866.
    

    Date:	2011-02
    By:	Marc Flandreau (Graduate Institute of International Studies and Development, Geneva) Stefano Ugolini (Scuola Normale Superiore, Pisa)
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0007&r=hpe
    The National Monetary Commission was deeply concerned with importing best practice. One important focus was the connection between the money market and international trade. It was said that Britain’s lead in the market for “acceptances” originating in international trade was the basis of its sterling predominance. In this article, we use a so-far unexplored source to document the portfolio of bills that was brought up to the Bank of England for discount and study the behavior of the Bank of England during the crisis of 1866 (the so-called Overend-Gurney panic) when the Bank began adopting lending of last resort policies (Bignon, Flandreau and Ugolini 2011). We compare 1865 (a “normal” year) to 1866. Important findings include: (a) the statistical predominance of foreign bills in the material brought to the Bank of England; (b) the correlation between the geography of bills and British trade patterns; (c) a marked contrast between normal times lending and crisis lending in that main financial intermediaries and the “shadow banking system” only showed up at the Bank’s window during crises; (d) the importance of money market investors (bills brokers) as chief conduit of liquidity provision in crisis; (e) the importance of Bank of England’s supervisory policies in ensuring lending-of-last resort operations without enhancing moral hazard. An implication of our findings is that Bank of England’s ability to control moral hazard for financial intermediaries involved in acceptances was another reason for the rise of sterling as an international currency.

22. On Fairness of Equilibria in Economies with Differential Information
    

    Date:	2012-01-11
    By:	Achille Basile (Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF) Maria Gabriella Graziano (Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF) Maria Laura Pesce (Università di Napoli Federico II)
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:303&r=hpe
    The paper proposes a notion of fairness which overcomes the conflict arising between efficiency and the absence of envy in economies with uncertainty and asymmetrically informed agents. We do it in general economies which include, as particular cases, the main differential information economies studied in the literature. The analysis is further extended by allowing the presence of large traders, which may cause the lack of perfect competition.
    Keywords:	Mixed markets, fairness, envy, efficiency, asymmetric information
    JEL:	C71

23. The lifeboat problem
    

    Date:	2011
    By:	Konrad, Kai A. Kovenock, Dan
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbfff:spii2011106&r=hpe
    We study an all-pay contest with multiple identical prizes (lifeboat seats). Prizes are partitioned into subsets of prizes (lifeboats). Players play a two-stage game. First, each player chooses an element of the partition (a lifeboat). Then each player competes for a prize in the subset chosen (a seat). We characterize and compare the subgame perfect equilibria in which all players employ pure strategies or all players play identical mixed strategies in the first stage. We find that the partitioning of prizes allows for coordination failure among players when they play nondegenerate mixed strategies and this can shelter rents and reduce rent dissipation compared to some of the less efficient pure strategy equilibria. –
    Keywords:	All-pay contest,multiple prizes,rent dissipation,lifeboat
    JEL:	D72

24. Game complete analysis of symmetric Cournot duopoly
    

    Date:	2012
    By:	Carfì, David Perrone, Emanuele
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:35930&r=hpe
    In this paper we apply the Complete Analysis of Differentiable Games (introduced by D. Carfì in [3], [6], [8], [9], and already employed by himself and others in [4], [5], [7]) to the classic Cournot Duopoly (1838), classic oligopolistic market in which there are two enterprises producing the same commodity and selling it in the same market. In this classic model, in a competitive background, the two enterprises employ, as possible strategies, the quantities of the commodity produced. The main solutions proposed in literature for this kind of duopoly are the Nash equilibrium and the Collusive Optimum, without any subsequent critical exam about these two kinds of solutions. The absence of any critical quantitative analysis is due to the relevant lack of knowledge regarding the set of all possible outcomes of this strategic interaction. On the contrary, by considering the Cournot Duopoly as a differentiable game (a game with differentiable payoff functions) and studying it by the new topological methodologies introduced by D. Carfì, we obtain an exhaustive and complete vision of the entire payoff space of the Cournot game (this also in asymmetric cases with the help of computers) and this total view allows us to analyze critically the classic solutions and to find other ways of action to select Pareto strategies. In order to illustrate the application of this topological methodology to the considered infinite game, several compromise decisions are considered, and we show how the complete study gives a real extremely extended comprehension of the classic model.
    Keywords:	duopoly; normal-form games; microeconomic Policy; complete study of differentiable games; bargaining solutions
    JEL:	B21

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In this issue we have:

1. Shanghai’s Trade, China’s Growth: Continuity, Recovery, and Change since the Opium War Wolfgang Keller; Ben Li; Carol H. Shiue
2. String of defaults: Spanish financial crises through the years Shachmurove, Tomer; Shachmurove, Yochanan
3. The contribution of migration to economic development in Holland and the Netherlands 1510-1900 Peter Foldvari; Bas van Leeuwen; Jan Luiten van Zanden
4. Structural Impediments to African Growth? New Evidence from Real Wages in British Africa, 1880-1965 Ewout Frankema; Marlous van Waijenburg
5. Between Conquest and Independence: Real Wages and Demographic Change in Spanish America, 1530-1820 Leticia Arroyo Abad; Elwyn A.R. Davies; Jan Luiten van Zanden
6. The development of inequality and poverty in Indonesia, 1932-1999 Bas van Leeuwen
7. Agricultural Productivity Across Prussia During the Industrial Revolution: A ThŸnen Perspective Michael Kopsidis; Nikolaus Wolf
8. Labour Productivity and human capital in the maritime sector of the North Atlantic, c. 1672-1815 Jelle van Lottum; Jan Luiten van Zanden
9. Educational Content, Educational Institutions and Economic Development: Lessons from History Cantoni, Davide; Yuchtman, Noam
10. Landownership Concentration and the Expansion of Education Francesco Cinnirella; Erik Hornung
11. Where It All Began: Lending of Last Resort and the Bank of England During the Overend, Gurney Panic of 1866. Marc Flandreau; Stefano Ugolini
12. Mortalidad y crecimiento vegetativo en la provincia de Guadalajara, 1700-1865 Enrique Llopis; Ángel Luis Velasco
13. The Role of Human Capital in the Process of Economic Development: The Case of England, 1307-1900 Alexandra M. de Pleijt
14. The design of licensing contracts: Chemicals, Pharmaceuticals, and Electrical Engineering in Imperial Germany Carsten Burhop; Thorsten Lübbers
15. Forced Labour in Franco’s Spain: Workforce Supply, Profits and Productivity Fernando Mendiola Gonzalo
16. Human Development in Africa: A Long-Run Perspective Leandro Prados de la Escosura
17. A Tale of Two Oceans: Market Integration Over the High Seas, 1800-1940. Giovanni Federico
18. The concentration of the ECSC’s coal and steel industries (1952-1967): Could West Germany be kept small? Poelmans, Eline
19. Bondholders vs. bond-sellers? Investment banks and conditionality lending in the London market for foreign government debt, 1815-1913. Marc Flandreau; Juan Flores
20. Why did (pre‐industrial) firms train?: premiums and apprenticeship contracts in 18th century England Minns, Chris; Wallis, Patrick
21. War, Inflation, Monetary Reform and the Art Market Geraldine David; Kim Oosterlinck
22. The Labor Market Integration of Migrants: Barcelona, 1930. Javier Silvestre; Ma Isabel Ayuda; Vicente Pinilla
23. Taking Technology to Task: The Skill Content of Technological Change in Early Twentieth Century United States Rowena Gray
24. The Nixon Shock after Forty Years: The Import Surcharge Revisited Douglas A. Irwin
25. Biography and Life History Data in the German Socio Economic Panel (SOEP, v27, 1984-2010) Joachim R. Frick; Jan Goebel (Eds.)
26. Democracia y Crecimiento Económico en Colombia 1958-2000 Miguel Urrutia Montoya
27. Was the Emergence of the International Gold Standard Expected? Melodramatic Evidence from Indian Government Securities. Marc Flandreau; Kim Oosterlinck
28. Organizational Characteristics and Performance of Export Promotion Agencies: Portugal and Ireland compared Inês Veloso Ferreira; Aurora A. C. Teixeira
29. The chinese financial system at the Dawn of the 21st century: An Overview Yulu, Chen; Yong, Ma; Ke, Tang
30. Hechos y palabras: la realidad colombiana vista a través de la prensa escrita Juan Manuel Caicedo; Alejandro Gaviria; Javier Moreno
31. Capital accumulation and growth in Central Europe, 1920-2006 Bas van Leeuwen; Peter Földvari

Contents.

1. Shanghai’s Trade, China’s Growth: Continuity, Recovery, and Change since the Opium War
   

   Date:	2012-01
   By:	Wolfgang Keller Ben Li Carol H. Shiue
   URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17754&r=his
   In this paper, we provide aggregate trends in China’s trade performance from the 1840s to the present. Based on historical benchmarks, we argue that China’s recent gains are not exclusively due to the reforms since 1978. Rather, foreign economic activity can be understood by developments that were set in motion in the 19th century. We turn our focus to Shanghai, currently the world’s largest port. Shanghai began direct trade relations with western nations starting in 1843. By 1853, Shanghai already accounted for more than half of China’s foreign trade. In tracking the levels and growth rates of the city’s net and gross imports and exports, foreign direct investment, and foreign residents over more than a century, we find that Shanghai’s level of bilateral trade today with the United States, the United Kingdom, or Japan, for example, are by no means high given Shanghai’s 19th century experience. This paper argues that a regional approach that embeds national trading destinations within an international trading system provides a meaningful approach to understanding the history of China’s trade.
   JEL:	F10

2. String of defaults: Spanish financial crises through the years
   

   Date:	2011-07
   By:	Shachmurove, Tomer Shachmurove, Yochanan
   URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36012&r=his
   Like many countries, Spain has gone through a series of financial crises, both before and after its industrialization. There are many underlying causes for these crises, as well as for the current Spanish downturn. It is worth noting that there are similarities between recessions throughout the history of Spain. The role of government spending, government regulation, credit institutions, budget deficits, the political climate, and international trade have been important determinants of the state of the Spanish economy, as they have been in other economies across the globe.
   Keywords:	Spain; Spanish Economy; Financial Crises; Federal Budget Deficit; Banking Crises; Subprime Mortgage; Spanish Industrial Revolution; Economic History; Political Economy; International Trade; Government Regulation
   JEL:	N1

3. The contribution of migration to economic development in Holland and the Netherlands 1510-1900
   

   Date:	2012-01
   By:	Peter Foldvari Bas van Leeuwen Jan Luiten van Zanden (Utrecht University)
   URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucg:wpaper:0025&r=his
   Migration always played an important role in Dutch society. However, little quantitative evidence on its effect on economic development is known for the period before the 20th century even though some stories exist about their effect on the Golden Age. Applying a new dataset on migration and growth for the period 1510-1900 in a system of equations, we find that in the Golden Age, the 18th century, and the 19th century there was a direct positive effect of migration on productivity. However, when taking account of indirect effects via humanand physical capital, only during the Golden Age the net effect of migration on per capita GDP was positive. This seems to confirm those studies that claim that the Golden Age at least partially benefitted from immigration.
   Keywords:	Economic growth, Immigration, Holland, endogenous development, Human capital

4. Structural Impediments to African Growth? New Evidence from Real Wages in British Africa, 1880-1965
   

   Date:	2011-12
   By:	Ewout Frankema (Utrecht University) Marlous van Waijenburg
   URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucg:wpaper:0024&r=his
   Recent studies on African economic history have emphasized the structural impediments to African growth, such as adverse geographical conditions and extractive colonial institutions. The evidence is mainly drawn from cross-country regressions on late 20th century income levels, assuming persistent effects of historical causes over time. But to which extent has African poverty been a persistent phenomenon? Our study sheds light on this question by providing new evidence on long-term African growth-trajectories. We show that slave trade regressions are not robust for pre-1970s GDP per capita levels, or for pre-1973 and post-1995 growth rates. We calculate urban unskilled real wages of African workers in nine British African countries 1880-1965, adopting Allen’s (2009) subsistence basket methodology. We find that real wages were above subsistence level, rose significantly over time and were, in major parts of British Africa, considerably higher than real wages in Asian cities up to, at least the 1930s. We explain the intra-African variation in real wage levels by varying colonial institutions concerning land alienation, taxation and immigration.
   Keywords:	Africa, living standards, real wages, labor market, colonial institutions

5. Between Conquest and Independence: Real Wages and Demographic Change in Spanish America, 1530-1820
   

   Date:	2011-12
   By:	Leticia Arroyo Abad Elwyn A.R. Davies Jan Luiten van Zanden
   URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucg:wpaper:0020&r=his
   On the basis of a newly constructed dataset, this paper presents long-term series of the price levels, nominal wages, and real wages in Spanish Latin America – more specifically in Mexico, Peru, Bolivia, Colombia, Chile, and Argentina – between ca. 1530 and ca. 1820. It synthesizes the work of scholars who have collected and published data on individual cities and periods, and presents comparable indices of real wages and prices in the colonial period that give a reasonable guide to trends in the long run. We show that wages and prices were on average much higher than in Western Europe or in Asia, a reflection of the low value of silver that must have had consequences for competitiveness of the Latin American economies. Labour scarcity was the second salient feature of Spanish Latin America and resulted in real wages much above subsistence and in some cases (Mexico, Bolivia, Argentina) comparable to levels in Northwestern Europe. For Mexico, this was caused by the dramatic decline of the population after the Conquest. For Bolivia, the driving force was the boom in silver mining in Potosi that created a huge demand for labour. In the case of Argentina, low population density was a pre-colonial feature. Perhaps due to a different pattern of depopulation, the real wages of other regions (Peru, Colombia, Chile) were much lower, and only increased above subsistence during the first half of the 18th century. These results are consistent with independent evidence on biological standards of living and with estimates of GDP per capita at the beginning of the 19th century.?
   Keywords:	Wages, Prices, Latin America, Early Modern Period

6. The development of inequality and poverty in Indonesia, 1932-1999
   

   Date:	2012-01
   By:	Bas van Leeuwen
   URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucg:wpaper:0026&r=his
   In this paper we estimate inequality in Indonesia between 1932 and 1999. There was an increase in inequality at the start of this period but then a sharp decline from the 1960s. A shift from domestic to export agriculture over the period up to the Great Depression accounts for the increase in inequality. During the 1930s, as the price of export crops declined, the income of rich farmers suffered a blow. Yet, this was counterbalanced by increasing gap between expenditure in the urban and rural sectors, causing an over-all rise in inequality. As for the second half of the century, we find that the employment shift towards manufacturing and services, combined with an increase in labour productivity in agriculture, accounts for the decline in inequality. These inequality trends had an effect on poverty as well, but prior to the 1940s the negative impact of the rise in inequality was offset by an increase in per capita GDP. Between 1950 and 1980 a decline in inequality, combined with increased per capita GDP rapidly raised a large portion of the population above the poverty line.
   Keywords:	Indonesia, inequality, poverty, economic development

7. Agricultural Productivity Across Prussia During the Industrial Revolution: A ThŸnen Perspective
   

   Date:	2012-01
   By:	Michael Kopsidis (IAMO Halle) Nikolaus Wolf (Humboldt-University Berlin and CEPR)
   URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0013&r=his
   This paper explores the pattern of agricultural productivity across 19th century Prussia to gain new insights on the causes of the ÒLittle DivergenceÓ between European regions. We argue that access to urban demand was the dominant factor explaining the gradient of agricultural productivity as had been suggested much earlier theoretically by von ThŸnen (1826) and empirically by Engel (1867). This is in line with recent findings on a limited degree of interregional market integration in 19th century Prussia.
   Keywords:	Prussia, Agricultural Productivity, Industrialisation, Market Access
   JEL:	N53

8. Labour Productivity and human capital in the maritime sector of the North Atlantic, c. 1672-1815
   

   Date:	2011-12
   By:	Jelle van Lottum Jan Luiten van Zanden
   URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucg:wpaper:0022&r=his
   Pre-modern growth was to a large extent dependent on processes of commercialization and specialization, based on cheap transport. Seminal interpretations of the process of economic growth before the Industrial Revolution have pointed to the strategic importance of the rise of the Atlantic economy and the growth of cities linked to this but have not really explained why Europeans were so efficient in organizing large international networks of shipping and trade. Most studies concerning early modern shipping have focused on changes in shipdesign in explaining long-term performance of European shipping in the pre-1800 period. In this paper we argue that this is only part of the explanation. Human capital – the quality of the labour force employed on ships – mattered as well. We firstly demonstrate that levels of human capital on board European ships were very high, much higher than the average for the countries from which the crew was recruited, and secondly that there were close links between the level of labour productivity in shipping and the quality of the workforce. This suggests strongly that shipping was a ‘high tech’ industry not only employing high quality capital goods, but also, as a complementary input, high quality labour, which was required to operate the increasingly complex ships and their equipment.
   Keywords:	Human Capital, Shipping, Early Modern Period

9. Educational Content, Educational Institutions and Economic Development: Lessons from History
   

   Date:	2012-01
   By:	Cantoni, Davide Yuchtman, Noam
   URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lmu:muenec:12691&r=his
   Individuals’ choices of educational content are often shaped by the political economy of government policies that determine the incentives to acquire various skills. We first present a model to show how differences in educational content emerge as an equilibrium outcome of private decisions and government policy choices. We then illustrate these dynamics in two historical circumstances. In medieval Europe, states and the Church found individuals trained in Roman law valuable, and eventually supported investments in this new form of human capital. This had positive effects on Europe’s commercial and institutional development. In late 19th-century China, elites were afraid of the introduction of Western science and engineering and continued to select civil servants – who enjoyed substantial rents—based on their knowledge of Confucian classics. As a result, China lacked skills useful in modern industry. Finally, we present a variety of other contemporary and historical applications of this theory.
   Keywords:	Educational Content; Educational Institutions; Political Economy; Development
   JEL:	N30

10. Landownership Concentration and the Expansion of Education
    

    Date:	2011-10
    By:	Francesco Cinnirella (Ifo Institute and CESifo, Munich) Erik Hornung (Ifo Institute, Munich)
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0010&r=his
    This paper studies the effect of landownership concentration on school enrollment for nineteenth-century Prussia. Prussia is an interesting laboratory given its decentralized educational system and the presence of heterogeneous agricultural institutions. We find that landownership concentration, a proxy for the institution of serf labor, has a negative effect on schooling. This effect diminishes substantially in the second half of the century. Causality of this relationship is confirmed by introducing soil-texture to identify exogenous farm size variation. Panel estimates further rule out unobserved heterogeneity. We argue that serfdom hampered peasants’ demand for education whereas the successive emancipation triggered a demand thereof.
    Keywords:	Land concentration, Institutions, Serfdom, Education, Prussian economic history
    JEL:	O43

11. Where It All Began: Lending of Last Resort and the Bank of England During the Overend, Gurney Panic of 1866.
    

    Date:	2011-02
    By:	Marc Flandreau (Graduate Institute of International Studies and Development, Geneva) Stefano Ugolini (Scuola Normale Superiore, Pisa)
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0007&r=his
    The National Monetary Commission was deeply concerned with importing best practice. One important focus was the connection between the money market and international trade. It was said that Britain’s lead in the market for “acceptances” originating in international trade was the basis of its sterling predominance. In this article, we use a so-far unexplored source to document the portfolio of bills that was brought up to the Bank of England for discount and study the behavior of the Bank of England during the crisis of 1866 (the so-called Overend-Gurney panic) when the Bank began adopting lending of last resort policies (Bignon, Flandreau and Ugolini 2011). We compare 1865 (a “normal” year) to 1866. Important findings include: (a) the statistical predominance of foreign bills in the material brought to the Bank of England; (b) the correlation between the geography of bills and British trade patterns; (c) a marked contrast between normal times lending and crisis lending in that main financial intermediaries and the “shadow banking system” only showed up at the Bank’s window during crises; (d) the importance of money market investors (bills brokers) as chief conduit of liquidity provision in crisis; (e) the importance of Bank of England’s supervisory policies in ensuring lending-of-last resort operations without enhancing moral hazard. An implication of our findings is that Bank of England’s ability to control moral hazard for financial intermediaries involved in acceptances was another reason for the rise of sterling as an international currency.

12. Mortalidad y crecimiento vegetativo en la provincia de Guadalajara, 1700-1865
    

    Date:	2012-01
    By:	Enrique Llopis Ángel Luis Velasco
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:seh:wpaper:1202&r=his
    This working paper central purpose is to study the magnitude and the evolution of mortality in the Guadalajara province between 1700 and 1865. The parish registers of baptisms and deaths in a sample of 25 local entities are the main source of data. The principal finding is the slightly downward trend in the gross mortality rate between 1750 and 1830s, only broken by a brisk surge during the first years of the XIX century. The dominant factor in the downward pattern is a pullback in adult mortality.
    Keywords:	mortality, natural growth, Guadalajara, Spain, eighteenth and nineteenth centuries
    JEL:	N33

13. The Role of Human Capital in the Process of Economic Development: The Case of England, 1307-1900
    

    Date:	2011-12
    By:	Alexandra M. de Pleijt
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucg:wpaper:0021&r=his
    Macroeconomic growth models underline the importance of human capital in the process of economic development. This analysis introduces a new proxy for human capital, which is educational attainment, and examines cohesion between education levels and growth for England between 1307 and 1900. The empirical evidence suggests no significant result between basic skills, such as reading and writing abilities, and growth of per capita GDP. More progressive human capital levels, as measured by average years of higher education, seem to have contributed to the process of development until the mid-eighteenth century.
    Keywords:	Economic development, human capital, history of education, England

14. The design of licensing contracts: Chemicals, Pharmaceuticals, and Electrical Engineering in Imperial Germany
    

    Date:	2011-07
    By:	Carsten Burhop (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn and University of Cologne) Thorsten Lübbers (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn and University of Cologne)
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpg:wpaper:2011_18&r=his
    We investigate a sample of 180 technology licensing contracts closed by German chemical, pharmaceutical, and electrical engineering companies between 1880 and 1913. Our empirical results suggest that strategic behaviour seems to be relevant for the design of licensing contracts, whereas inventor moral hazard and risk aversion of licensor or licensee seem to be irrelevant. Moreover, our results suggest that uncertainty regarding the profitability of licensed technology influenced the design of licensing contracts. More specifically, profit sharing agreements or producer milestones were typically included into licensing contracts.
    Keywords:	Economic History, Germany, pre-1913, Licensing contracts, Technology transfer
    JEL:	N83

15. Forced Labour in Franco’s Spain: Workforce Supply, Profits and Productivity
    

    Date:	2011-01
    By:	Fernando Mendiola Gonzalo (Department of Economics, Universidad Pública de Navarra, and Research Group on the History of Prison and Punitive Institutions)
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0004&r=his
    This article analyses the forced labour system created in Spain during the Civil War and maintained during the Francoist dictatorship, paying special attention to the economic logic that led the state and private enterprises to draw a profit from this kind of punishment. In order to deal with this question in depth my research has been focused on three main aspects: the workforce supply in a war economy and in a context of reconstruction, the margins of profit produced by this kind of labour in comparison with free labour, and the problems related to productivity levels. Through consideration of these questions I present an overview of the main research in the subject and make suggestions for new goals in Spanish economic history concerned with this kind of repressive practice, bringing it into line with international historiography on the forced labour economy.
    Keywords:	forced labour, war economy, Spanish Civil War, Franco’s Dictatorship, prison economy
    JEL:	J20

16. Human Development in Africa: A Long-Run Perspective
    

    Date:	2011-10
    By:	Leandro Prados de la Escosura (Department of Economic History and Institutions, Universidad Carlos III, Madrid)
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0008&r=his
    Long-run trends in Africa’s well-being are provided on the basis of a new index of human development, alternative to the UNDP’s HDI. A sustained improvement in African human development is found that falls, nonetheless, short of those experienced in other developing regions. Within Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa has fallen steadily behind the North since mid-20th century. Human development improvement is positively associated to being coastal and resource-rich and negatively to political-economy distortions. Contrary to the world experience, in which life expectancy dominated, education has driven progress in African human development during the last half-a-century and, due to the impact of HIV/AIDS on life expectancy and the arresting effect of economic mismanagement and political turmoil on growth, advances in human development since 1990 have depended almost exclusively on education achievements. The large country variance of the recovery during the last decade suggests being cautious about the future’s prospects.
    Keywords:	Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Human Development, HDI, Life Expectancy, Education
    JEL:	O15

17. A Tale of Two Oceans: Market Integration Over the High Seas, 1800-1940.
    

    Date:	2011-10
    By:	Giovanni Federico (European University Institute and University of Pisa)
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0011&r=his
    Long-range market integration is an essential component of globalization but it is still comparatively under-researched. The conventional wisdom relies heavily on the case of Atlantic trade in the period after 1870. This paper covers also the Indian Ocean and extends the period under consideration, from Waterloo to World War Two. Integration started in first half of the 19th century, and timing and extent of convergence differed substantially among products. The second part of the paper analyses the causes of the process with a panel regression and puts forwards a tentative estimate of its welfare effects. The key message of the paper is that simple generalizations about the first globalization are not good substitutes for empirical research.

18. The concentration of the ECSC’s coal and steel industries (1952-1967): Could West Germany be kept small?
    

    Date:	2011-09
    By:	Poelmans, Eline (Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel (HUB), Belgium)
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hub:wpecon:201113&r=his
    In 1951, six Western European countries founded the ‘European Coal and Steel Community’ (ECSC), which they hoped would be a first step towards more European integration and provide a common legal framework for their coal and steel industries. The main aim of the ECSC was to make sure that the West German coal and steel firms would never again reach their pre-war capacities, which according to many had indirectly led to World War II. Another important aim was to prevent the USSR from conquering West Germany. This article constitutes a case study of the regional concentration of the coal and steel industries in the six ECSC countries, and it investigates whether the importance of certain coal and steel producing regions within the ECSC changed between 1952 and 1967. Further, an analysis is conducted of how the concentration ratios of the ECSC’s industries differed between its six member countries, whether these differences changed over time, how this influenced the size and number of coal and steel firms and whether the ECSC succeeded in its aim of keeping West Germany small.
    Keywords:	economic history; ECSC; European Integration; regional concentration
    JEL:	F59

19. Bondholders vs. bond-sellers? Investment banks and conditionality lending in the London market for foreign government debt, 1815-1913.
    

    Date:	2011-01
    By:	Marc Flandreau (Graduate Institute of International Studies and Development, Geneva) Juan Flores (Department of Economic History, University of Geneva)
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0002&r=his
    This paper offers a theory of conditionality lending in 19th-century international capital markets. We argue that ownership of reputation signals by prestigious banks rendered them able and willing to monitor government borrowing. Monitoring was a source of rent, and it led bankers to support countries facing liquidity crises in a manner similar to modern descriptions of “relationship” lending to corporate clients by “parent” banks. Prestigious bankers’ ability to implement conditionality loans and monitor countries’ financial policies also enabled them to deal with solvency. We find that, compared with prestigious bankers, bondholders’ committees had neither the tools nor the prestige required for effectively dealing with defaulters. Hence such committees were far less important than previous research has claimed.
    Keywords:	Bondholders, Investment banks, certification
    JEL:	N20

20. Why did (pre‐industrial) firms train?: premiums and apprenticeship contracts in 18th century England
    

    Date:	2011-10
    By:	Minns, Chris Wallis, Patrick
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:41348&r=his
    Despite poor information flows, high levels of uncertainty, and low completion rates, training through apprenticeship provided the main mechanism for occupational human capital formation in pre‐industrial England. This paper demonstrates how training premiums complemented the formal legal framework surrounding apprenticeship to secure training contracts. Premiums compensated parties for the anticipated risk of default, but in most trades were small enough to allow access to apprenticeship training for youths from modest families.
    JEL:	O52

21. War, Inflation, Monetary Reform and the Art Market
    

    Date:	2012-01
    By:	Geraldine David (Universite Libre de Bruxelles) Kim Oosterlinck (Universite Libre de Bruxelles)
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0012&r=his
    During World War II, the art market experienced a massive boom in occupied countries. The discretion, the inflation proof character, the absence of market intervention and the possibility to resell artworks abroad have been suggested to explain why investing in artworks was one of the most interesting opportunities under the German boot. On basis of an original database of close to 4000 artworks sold between 1944 and 1951 at Giroux, one of the most important Art Gallery in Brussels, this paper analyzes, the price movements on the Belgian art market following the liberation. Market reactions following the war are used to understand which motivations played the most important role in investorsÕ decisions. Prices on the art market experienced a massive drop. This huge price decline is attributed to two elements: fear of prosecution for war profits and the monetary reforms set into place in October 1944.
    Keywords:	Art market, Art Investment, WWII, Belgium, Post-war, Monetary reforms
    JEL:	N14

22. The Labor Market Integration of Migrants: Barcelona, 1930.
    

    Date:	2011-01
    By:	Javier Silvestre (Faculty of Economics and Business, Universidad de Zaragoza) Ma Isabel Ayuda (Faculty of Economics and Business, Universidad de Zaragoza) Vicente Pinilla (Faculty of Economics and Business, Universidad de Zaragoza)
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0003&r=his
    Very few empirical studies have analyzed the labor market performance of internal migrants in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Using a new dataset, this article examines the occupational attainment of migrants, mostly internal migrants, in the city of Barcelona. We find that, in comparison with natives, the occupational outcome of migrants is partly explained by differences in labor market experience and skills. Nevertheless, other factors also appear to play an important role. Estimates, moreover, do not suggest the existence of improved economic assimilation over time. The results indicate that at least some groups of migrants faced barriers to occupational mobility.
    Keywords:	labor market integration, migrants, occupations, historical labor market
    JEL:	J24

23. Taking Technology to Task: The Skill Content of Technological Change in Early Twentieth Century United States
    

    Date:	2011-10
    By:	Rowena Gray (University of Essex, UK)
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0009&r=his
    This paper presents a new picture of the labor market effects of technological change in pre-WWII United States. I show that, similar to the recent computerization episode, the electrification of the manufacturing sector led to a "hollowing out" of the skill distribution whereby workers in the middle of the distribution lost out to those at the extremes. To conduct this analysis, a new dataset detailing the task composition of occupations in the United States for the period 1880-1940 was constructed using information about the task content of over 4,000 occupations from the Dictionary of Occupational Titles (1949). This unique data was used to measure the skill content of electrification in U.S. manufacturing. OLS estimates show that electrification increased the demand for clerical, numerical, planning and people skills relative to manual skills while simultaneously reducing relative demand for the dexterity-intensive jobs which comprised the middle of the skill distribution. Thus, early twentieth century technological change was unskill-biased for blue collar tasks but skill-biased on aggregate. These results are in line with the downward trend in wage differentials within U.S. manufacturing up to 1950. To overcome any threat to the exogeneity of the electricity measure, due for example to endogenous technological change, 2 instrumental variable strategies were developed. The first uses cross-state differences in the timing of adoption of state-level utility regulation while the second exploits differences in state-level geography that encouraged the development of hydro-power generation and thus made electricity cheaper. The results from these regressions support the main conclusions of the paper.
    Keywords:	Technological change, skill bias
    JEL:	J23

24. The Nixon Shock after Forty Years: The Import Surcharge Revisited
    

    Date:	2012-01
    By:	Douglas A. Irwin
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17749&r=his
    On August 15, 1971, President Richard Nixon closed the gold window and imposed a 10 percent surcharge on all dutiable imports in an effort to force other countries to revalue their currencies against the dollar. The import surcharge was lifted four months later after the Smithsonian agreement led to new exchange rate parities. This paper examines the political, economic, and legal issues surrounding the import surcharge. This historical episode may shed light on the possible use of trade sanctions as part of the effort to get China to allow the renminbi to appreciate more rapidly.
    JEL:	F13

25. Biography and Life History Data in the German Socio Economic Panel (SOEP, v27, 1984-2010)
    

    Date:	2011
    By:	Joachim R. Frick Jan Goebel (Eds.)
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwddc:dd61&r=his

26. Democracia y Crecimiento Económico en Colombia 1958-2000
    

    Date:	2011-11-07
    By:	Miguel Urrutia Montoya
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:009254&r=his
    El artículo es una historia económica de la segunda parte del siglo XX, después del restablecimiento de la democracia en 1958. Se describen los progresos de Colombia en términos de ingreso per capita, cambios en la estructura de la economía, la participación femenina, los progresos y reversos en ciertos indicadores sociales, y los cambios en las políticas de desarrollo económico y de comercio exterior.

27. Was the Emergence of the International Gold Standard Expected? Melodramatic Evidence from Indian Government Securities.
    

    Date:	2011-01
    By:	Marc Flandreau (Graduate Institute of International Studies and Development, Geneva) Kim Oosterlinck (Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Université Libre de Bruxelles)
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0005&r=his
    The emergence of the gold standard has for a long time been viewed as inevitable. Fluctuations of the gold-silver exchange rate in world markets were accused to lead to brutal and unsustainable switches of bimetallic countries’ money supplies. However, more recent work has shown that the option character of bimetallism provided a stabilizing feedback loop. Using original data, this paper provides support to the new view. Using quotation prices for Indian Government bonds, we analyze agents’ expectations between 1860 and 1890. The intuition is that the spread between gold and silver bonds issued by the same entity (India) and backed by a credible agent (Britain) is a “pure” measure of the silver risk. The analysis shows that up until 1874 markets were expecting bimetallism to last. It is only after this date that markets gradually started requiring a premium to hold silver bonds indicating their belief that gold would eventually become the only metallic standard.
    Keywords:	Exchange rate regime, gold standard, bimetallism, credibility, silver risk
    JEL:	F33

28. Organizational Characteristics and Performance of Export Promotion Agencies: Portugal and Ireland compared
    

    Date:	2012-01
    By:	Inês Veloso Ferreira (Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Porto) Aurora A. C. Teixeira (CEF.UP, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Porto; INESC Porto; OBEGEF)
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mde:wpaper:0046&r=his
    Export Promotion Agencies (EPAs) have been in operation in developed countries since the beginning of the 20th century to improve the competitiveness of firms by increasing knowledge and competences applied to export market development.
    Keywords:	Export Promotion Agencies; Organizational Performance; Portugal; Ireland
    JEL:	F13

29. The chinese financial system at the Dawn of the 21st century: An Overview
    

    Date:	2011-07
    By:	Yulu, Chen Yong, Ma Ke, Tang
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36027&r=his
    Based on a systematic review and summarization of China’s 30 years of financial reform and development, this paper comprehensively analyzes the past, present and future development of China’s financial system and also presents the mechanism for China’s financial development from the view of political economics. Generally, the Chinese financial system is bank-oriented. The property rights structure, led by state-owned banks, is the prominent feature of the Chinese banking system. Equity, bond, money, currency and real estate markets have been developing rapidly; however, the development rate of these markets varies, and institutional construction generally falls behind the market development. China’s financial decision-making authority belongs to the State Council, and the financial supervision system adopts the mode of “separate regulation.” China’s state-driven, progressive financial reforms have promoted the formation of the government-led financial structure, which is composed of three parts: first, monetary policy, balancing both inflation control and economic growth; second, bank credit expansion under the implicit guarantee of the state; and third, the adjustable pegged exchange rate system based on capital controls. The next phase of financial reform in China will mainly focus on the following four key goals: first, to further improve the corporate governance and the mixed operation of financial institutions; second, to construct the institution of a financial market system and improve the effectiveness of the financial markets; third, to re-integrate regulatory resources, combine macro- and micro-prudent views, and establish a comprehensive framework for financial stability; fourth, to promote the liberalization of interest rates, marketization of the exchange rate and the opening of capital accounts based on a progressive approach and to improve the openness of the financial system based on macroeconomic stability.
    Keywords:	China; Financial System; Bank-oriented; Political Economics
    JEL:	K0

30. Hechos y palabras: la realidad colombiana vista a través de la prensa escrita
    

    Date:	2011-11-02
    By:	Juan Manuel Caicedo Alejandro Gaviria Javier Moreno
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:009253&r=his
    Este artículo presenta la primera aplicación al estudio de la realidad colombiana de culturomics, una nueva metodología de investigación de las ciencias sociales que describe tendencias culturales, sociales y lingüísticas con base en el análisis cuantitativo de textos digitalizados. El artículo usa la totalidad de las noticias y opiniones publicadas durante los últimos veinte años en tres medios escritos de circulación nacional con el propósito de describir las trayectorias de algunos fenómenos socioeconómicos y políticos: la corrupción, la división de poderes, el conflicto, el optimismo económico, etc. Más allá de los hallazgos concretos, este artículo muestra de qué manera puede usarse la metodología propuesta para describir la cambiante realidad de un país en desarrollo.

31. Capital accumulation and growth in Central Europe, 1920-2006
    

    Date:	2011-12
    By:	Bas van Leeuwen Peter Földvari
    URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucg:wpaper:0023&r=his
    Central and Eastern Europe is a region with widely divergent development paths. Up to WWII, these countries experienced comparable growth patterns. Yet, whereas Austria and West Germany remained part of the capitalist West and underwent periods of rapid growth, other countries, under state-socialist regimes, experienced on average far lower growth rates. The lack of data, however, often limits the possibilities of a detailed, quantitative analysis. In this paper, we use a new dataset on physical and human capital in seven Eastern and Central European countries for the period 1920-2006 to calculate the effect on economic growth. We analyse the effect of including the quality of education in human capital. This allows us to perform a growth accounting analysis with the several production factors for Central Europe between 1920 and the present. The difference in growth path across countries is partly explained by differences in efficiency.
    Keywords:	Eastern Europe, human capital, physical capital, growth accounting, efficiency, long run growth

Un cordial saludo, Marion Reder Gadow y Mercedes Fernández Paradas

Mercedes Fernández Paradas
Universidad de Málaga
Facultad de Filosofía y Letras
Departamento de Historia Moderna y Contemporánea
Campus Universitario de Teatinos s/n 29071 Málaga

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Chers amis,
La prochaine séance du Cercle d’épistémologie économique aura lieu :

le jeudi 9 février 2012
de 18 heures à 20 heures
à la Maison des Sciences Économiques ,
dans la salle du 6e étage
106-112 bd de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris.
(Métro : Campo-Formio ou Place d’Italie. Autobus : 57, 67, 27, 83 et 47)

Cristina MARCUZZO
Université "La Sapienza”, Rome

traitera le thème suivant:

“On alternative notions of change and choice:
Krishna Bharadwaj’s road to freedom from neoclassical economics”

Avec notre amitié,
Annie L. Cot
Jérôme Lallement